Built for LA ground-up development

Does the lot pencil? Know in seconds.

Paste a Zillow or Redfin link. LotPencil pulls the county parcel, models the build, and hands you your max lot offer, projected profit, a full construction-loan draw schedule, and a green/yellow/red verdict — not another spreadsheet weekend.

Runs 100% on your machine LA County parcel data, auto-pulled Calibrated to 2026 hard-cost bands
642 N Brentwood Park Dr, Los Angeles 90049
Asking $2,650,000 · 10,000 sqft new build
DEAL PENCILS
Max offer (lot)
$2.41M
Projected profit
$1.9M
Equity multiple
1.62×
Runway
11 mo
Financing: 65% LTC · peak balance $4.2M · carry incl. points $1.35M · 70%-rule ✓
How it works

From listing link to lender-ready in three steps

No templates to fill in. The app pulls the parcel record and models the build the way your pro-forma would — you only type what it can't know.

1

Paste a listing

Any LA-County Zillow or Redfin link — or just an address and asking price. The app pulls the county parcel record: lot size, existing structure, year built, and models a neighborhood-typical new build.

2

Read the verdict

Max offer for the lot, projected profit at asking, ROI, cash-on-cash, equity multiple, and a 70%-rule cross-check — condensed into one green/yellow/red call with a plain-language bottom line.

3

Pressure-test & export

Type your contractor's actual bid into any line item and watch the whole deal recalc. Stress a slow sale. Then export a white-label PDF built to hand to a lender or capital partner.

Features

The parts your spreadsheet gets wrong

Generic flip calculators model a rehab. Ground-up development has a draw schedule, capitalized interest, and a marketing period that quietly eats profit. This models all of it.

🏛️

County parcel auto-pull

Lot size, zoning footprint, existing structure and year built pulled straight from LA County records — with a confirm pick-list when an address is ambiguous, never a silent wrong parcel.

📐

Calibrated cost model

85 LA neighborhoods, validated against real 2026 hard-cost bands from economy builds ($220–380/sqft) to Westside luxury ($650–1,050/sqft). Location and finish quality are priced separately — no double counting.

✏️

Your bids, not our guesses

Click any line item and type the contractor quote you actually got. Profit, verdict, financing — everything recalculates instantly and saves with the deal.

🏦

Real draw schedule

Equity-first funding, S-curve construction spend, capitalized interest, origination points, and interest that keeps accruing while the finished house sits on market. Month-by-month table included.

⏱️

Runway stress test

Precise slow-sale scenarios at +3/+6/+12 months, plus a single number that matters: how many extra months on market until your profit hits zero.

📄

White-label PDF

Your firm name, your branding, every page — a report built to circulate to lenders and equity partners, including the financing page and stress table.

🗂️

Deal pipeline

Save every analysis with one click and reload it — including your cost overrides — as chips right under the search bar. Underwrite Saturday's open-house list in one sitting.

🔒

Local-first, private

A desktop app, not a SaaS portal. Your deals, your bids, and your margins never leave your computer.

🎯

Made for ground-up

Flip tools bolt "new construction" on as an afterthought. This is teardown-to-spec-home underwriting from the first click — because that's the deal you're actually doing.

Private beta — now open to LA developers

We're onboarding a small group of active ground-up developers and flippers to pressure-test the model against real deals before public launch. You get the full app, free, and a direct line to shape it. We get your corrections:

  • Is our ARV $/sqft within 10% in the neighborhoods you build?
  • Do the line items match the bids you're getting?
  • Do the default financing terms match your lender's quote?
Free during beta
Request access
Windows · ~30-second install · sample Brentwood deal loads on first run
FAQ

Questions developers ask

Why LA County only?

Because depth beats breadth in underwriting. The model is tuned to 85 LA neighborhoods with their own land values, resale bands, and location cost factors, and the parcel auto-pull runs on LA County's assessor records. More markets come after the LA model is validated by people like you.

How is this different from DealCheck or a flip calculator?

Those tools model buying an existing house and rehabbing it. Ground-up development is a different deal: demolition, a construction loan drawn over months, capitalized interest, points, and a marketing period where the loan balance keeps growing after the build is done. LotPencil models the draw schedule explicitly — it's the difference between a carry estimate and a carry number.

Where do the numbers come from?

Land and resale baselines per neighborhood, build costs assembled from line-item trades and validated against 2026 LA hard-cost ranges, and financing modeled from typical construction-loan terms (65% LTC, interest + origination points) — every one of which you can override with your own bid or quote.

What does it cost?

Nothing during the private beta. Paid plans will be announced at public launch — beta participants hear first and get preferred terms.

Is my deal data private?

Yes. It's a desktop app; analyses, saved deals, and your cost overrides live in local files on your machine. The only network calls are to public listing pages and the county parcel API for the address you enter.

Mac version?

Windows today. The app is built on a cross-platform stack, so a Mac build is planned — tell us in your beta request if that's a blocker and it moves up the list.